USD / JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Convincing Breakout to 115,615 Puts 118,601


The dollar / yen closed slightly lower on Thursday in extremely light volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. However, the Forex pair remained near a five-year high. The dollar strengthened against the yen throughout the month, pushed by investors betting on the continued divergence between the hawkish US Federal Reserve and the accommodating Bank of Japan.

On Thursday, USD / JPY stood at 115.375, down 0.047 or -0.04%.

Daily USD / JPY

Technical analysis of the daily swing chart

The main trend is upward on the daily swing chart. A trade up to 115.519 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. Breaking out of the main top of January 19, 2017 at 115.615 will reaffirm the uptrend. A trade up to 113.591 will change the main downtrend.

The minor range is 113.591 to 115.519. His 50% or pivot level at 114.555 is the closest support.

The short-term range is 112.728 to 115.519. His retracement area at 114,124 to 113,794 is the value area or the best support.

Technical forecasts of the daily swing chart

The direction of the USD / JPY on Friday will likely be determined by the reaction of traders at 115.615.

Bullish scenario

A sustained move above 115.615 will indicate the presence of buyers. This is a potential trigger point for an upward acceleration, with the next major target falling between 118.601 and 118.658.

Bearish scenario

A sustained move below 115.615 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough bearish momentum then expect the sell to eventually expand to the first pivot at 114.555.

If the sell is strong enough to take 114.555, then look for the sell to eventually lead to a test of 114.124 to 113.794. Since the main trend is up, look for new shoppers in this area.

Notes to the appendix

Exiting 115.519 and then closing below 115.375 will form a potentially bearish closing reversal top. If confirmed, this graphic pattern may trigger the start of a 2 to 3 correction.


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