Rising prices and inflation expectations

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The likelihood of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair heads into an overall uptrend.

Today’s USD/TRY Recommendation

  • Risk 0.50%.
  • The buy recommendation was activated yesterday, half of the contracts were closed and the stop loss point was moved as the price got closer to the target.

Best Selling Entry Points

  • Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
  • Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry zone and continue profiting when the price moves 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts up to the high resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

  • Entering a long position with a pending order from level 18.10.
  • The best points to set the stop-loss close at levels above 17.94.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry zone and continue profiting when the price moves 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level of 18.31.
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USD/TRY Analysis

Despite the strong movement early in the session, the price of USD/TRY returned to settle at the same levels it had been trading for almost a month. Investors followed reports this morning which showed that the Turkish government was increasing the price of energy in the country (gas and electricity) in varying proportions, with an increase in electricity prices having been approved by 20% for households and 30% for electricity used for the service. sector.

In addition, the Turkish government has approved a 50% increase in the price of electricity for the industrial sector. This can be reflected in the country’s inflation rate, which is at its highest level since 1998, when it recorded 80% during the month of July. The lira had seen a strong move before stabilizing near its lowest levels for the current year, for almost a month, with central bank control clearly visible in the price of the lira, which hardly moves under the influence of positive or negative news.

On a technical level, USD/TRY has settled into the tight trading range shown on the chart, near its 2022 highs. The pair has traded at the highest support levels, which are concentrated at the levels of 18.08 and 17.98, respectively. While it is trading below the resistance levels at 18.20 and 18.33, which are the pair’s highest levels recorded at the end of last year, respectively.

The currency pair is also trading above the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The likelihood of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair heads into an overall uptrend. As each decline in the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please respect the recommendation numbers with the need to maintain capital management.

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