GBPUSD continues to challenge the 1.3000 barrier, which has proven to be more durable, holding strong since mid-March. That said, the falling simple moving averages (MMS) confirm the descent and seem to reinforce the bearish defenses, which dampens the bullish outlook for the pair.
Moreover, the negative momentum has not yet shown any signs of significant weakening, which is also reflected in the short-term oscillators, which are trending downwards. The slight rise in the RSI, which is in the bearish region, has not yet become convincing, while the stochastic oscillator shows a strong negative charge. The MACD is in the negative region and a bit above its red trigger line, but shows no diminishing bearish momentum.
For the descent to resume, sellers would need to push the price below 1.3000 along with the 17-month low of 1.2972 and the adjacent lower Bollinger Band nearby. Thereafter, the bears could then encounter the next downside limitations at the 1.2854-1.2913 support boundary, shaped by the October lows through early November 2020. By successfully dipping past this too, the 1.2800 handle may try to delay a deeper decline aiming for the critical point. The support boundary 1.2643-1.2686, which dates back to mid-June 2020.
Alternatively, if the sellers fail to break above the 1.3000 level, the bullish impulse may face initial resistance in the middle of the Bollinger Band at 1.3083 ahead of the 1.3147 high. Another leg higher, the Bollinger Band above at 1.3193, coupled with the descending 50-day SMA at 1.3216, may prevent buyers from stretching towards the 1.3270-1.3300 resistance band. However, if the buying interest persists and breaks above the nearby 100-day SMA at 1.3332, then the bulls could propel towards the 1.3436-1.3485 boundary.
In summary, the GBPUSD maintains a bearish bias below the SMAs and the 1.3270-1.3300 barrier. A drop in the price extending beyond the 1.2854-1.2913 support band could add to the negative pressures. Still, for meaningful optimism to return to the pair, price would need to clear the 1.3436-1.3485 hurdle.