Falling hard on the Russian attack

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Bitcoin continues to approach long-term lows near $30,000.

Previous BTC/USD signal

Last Tuesday’s signal was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when price first hit the resistance level I had identified at $37,581.

BTC/USD Signals Today

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Transactions must be entered by 5 p.m. Tokyo time on Friday.

Long Business Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price reversal on the H1 timeframe after the next touch of $32,817, $31,630, $31,015 or $30,000.
  • Location the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade reaches $100 profit per price.
  • Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position work.

Short business ideas

  • Go short after a reversal in bearish price action on the H1 time frame after the next touch of $35,583 or $37,179.
  • Place the stop loss at $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade reaches $100 profit per price.
  • Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position work.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pinbar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or areas by observing the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD analysis

I wrote on Tuesday that the picture was mostly bearish and there was some bearish momentum that suggested the price was likely to continue lower. It was a good and correct call, although the price did not reverse at any of my identified resistance levels to give a short trade entry.

Bitcoin was already acting down and over the past few hours, with Russia now launching a military attack across Ukraine, risky assets have been hit quite hard. Bitcoin is no exception, which must surprise even the most naive crypto enthusiasts.

The price is making 1-month lows and is likely to continue lower until it reaches the group of very long-term support levels between $30,000 and $32,817.

With the war in Ukraine very unlikely to end, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will continue to fall during the day and hit at least $32,817. It can be a winning strategy to short bullish retracements when they start to turn bearish without looking for resistance levels. I would not take long trades today. However, once the price reaches maybe $32,817 or maybe $30,000, it might find support.

In such a crisis environment, it is important to trade very carefully and to understand that relying on support and resistance levels can be extremely ineffective.

BTC/USD

As for the USD today, there will be a release of preliminary GDP data at 1.30pm London time.

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