Bitcoin continues to approach long-term lows near $30,000.
Previous BTC/USD signal
Last Tuesday’s signal was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when price first hit the resistance level I had identified at $37,581.
BTC/USD Signals Today
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Transactions must be entered by 5 p.m. Tokyo time on Friday.
Long Business Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price reversal on the H1 timeframe after the next touch of $32,817, $31,630, $31,015 or $30,000.
- Location the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade reaches $100 profit per price.
- Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position work.
Short business ideas
- Go short after a reversal in bearish price action on the H1 time frame after the next touch of $35,583 or $37,179.
- Place the stop loss at $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade reaches $100 profit per price.
- Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position work.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pinbar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or areas by observing the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD analysis
I wrote on Tuesday that the picture was mostly bearish and there was some bearish momentum that suggested the price was likely to continue lower. It was a good and correct call, although the price did not reverse at any of my identified resistance levels to give a short trade entry.
Bitcoin was already acting down and over the past few hours, with Russia now launching a military attack across Ukraine, risky assets have been hit quite hard. Bitcoin is no exception, which must surprise even the most naive crypto enthusiasts.
The price is making 1-month lows and is likely to continue lower until it reaches the group of very long-term support levels between $30,000 and $32,817.
With the war in Ukraine very unlikely to end, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will continue to fall during the day and hit at least $32,817. It can be a winning strategy to short bullish retracements when they start to turn bearish without looking for resistance levels. I would not take long trades today. However, once the price reaches maybe $32,817 or maybe $30,000, it might find support.
In such a crisis environment, it is important to trade very carefully and to understand that relying on support and resistance levels can be extremely ineffective.
As for the USD today, there will be a release of preliminary GDP data at 1.30pm London time.
