BTC/USD Forex Signal: A Key Breakout in Doubt

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A retest of $19,619 from below is now crucial for Bitcoin’s future.

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Previous BTC/USD signal

My previous signal on the 31stst August was not triggered as none of the key levels were hit that day.

BTC/USD Signals Today

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken by 5 p.m. Tokyo time on Friday.

Long Business Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish reversal in H1-frame price action after the next touch of $19,182, $18,991 or $18,856
  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 profit per price.
  • Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position roll.

Short business ideas

  • Short entry after a reversal in the bearish price action on the H1 time frame after the next touch of $19,616 or $20,532.
  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 profit per price.
  • Withdraw 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 profit per price and let the rest of the position roll.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pinbar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis on the 31stst August that the price of BTC/USD appeared to break above the resistance level at $20,532 to produce a double top. I saw a well-defined consolidation range between $20,532 and $19,616 that could be played by trading reversals at either extreme level.

It was a good call. I also said that the key thing to watch in Bitcoin is whether the price would break below the lowest key support level at $19,163. We finally saw a breakdown below this level, which remains very crucial and can now act as a key resistanceor as a reference that could indicate that the bearish breakdown is over.

Yesterday, Bitcoin continued to fall, in line with the strength of the US Dollar which was dragging down other assets everywhere. Bitcoin barely hit a new long-term low, but then bounced back with a strong U-shaped bullish reversal, as can be seen in the price table below. Adding to the strength of this bullish move are the new nearby support levels below which the buy action has imprinted.

The price now looks quite likely to continue higher and possibly test the pivot point at $19,163. What happens here will be crucial to monitor. There is technically room for Bitcoin to now quickly fall to a zone below $15,000, but while it seemed possible yesterday, the price action shows no signs that this will happen today.

Longer-term traders may look for a potential short trade if it fails to break above $19,163 once this level is reached. Conversely, if the price breaks above this level and we get a few consecutive higher hourly closes showing bullish momentum, the price will likely rise.

BTC/USD

There is nothing very significant expected today regarding the US dollar.

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