Bitcoin still in the price discovery phase


It will likely continue to consolidate and then break up later this month.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 23,700 and a take-profit at 24,600.
  • Add a stop-loss at 22,500.
  • Lead time: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell stop at 22,500 and a take profit at 20,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 24,000.

BTC/USD price declined during the overnight session as attention shifted to upcoming US inflation data and stocks retreated. The pair fell to a low of 23,117, which was below this week’s high of 24,600.


Inflation data coming soon

Bitcoin has recently been trading in an extremely tight range as investors focus on upcoming consumer and producer inflation data in the United States.

Economists polled by Reuters believe that consumer inflation eased slightly last month due to falling oil prices. For example, after peaking at $5 per gallon, gasoline prices fell to $4.03 by the end of the month. This is remarkable since gasoline is one of the main drivers of inflation in the United States.

These numbers will come days after the United States released overwhelmingly positive jobs numbers. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the economy added 528,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

Therefore, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten in the coming months. Analysts now believe the bank will raise interest rates by 0.50% in September, followed by two hikes of 0.25% at the last two meetings of the year.

The BTC/USD pair also declined following Interactive Brokers’ expansion into the crypto industry. Platform users will be able to trade digital assets 24/7. The expansion was made possible through a relationship with Paxos, a leading digital asset company.

The news was significant because Interactive Brokers is one of the largest financial services companies in the world. It has millions of users and a market cap of over $25 billion. Still, many companies in the industry like Coinbase and Robinhood have seen subdued market activity this year.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a consolidation phase for the past few days. It remained in a range between 22,500 and 24,600. The pair was trading at 23,100 on Wednesday morning, which was around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It also traded along the 25- and 50-day moving averages.

At the same time, the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is about to reach its confluence point. Therefore, it will likely continue to consolidate, then break up later this month.


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